2016年6月15日水曜日

[Earthquake prediction] earthquake occurrence probability, be more than 80% in the Kanto rise in the Pacific Ocean side


( '-`) .. OO (I happened in Kumamoto also 7% to ... happened be nice also off if scale is smaller than expected even if ...)


1: manner well Keiichi ★ \ (^ o ^) / bad © 2ch.net 2016/06/10 (gold) 18: 43: 48.81 ID: CAP_USER9
Government of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion 10 days, announced the 2016 edition of the "National Seismic Hazard map" indicating the probability of being hit by a strong earthquake in within the next 30 years.
In the seismic intensity 6 lower the collapse of the building is the beginning, compared to the 14-year version of the previously announced, the probability in the Pacific Ocean side went up about a maximum of two points.
Forecast map is used to such risk calculation of disaster prevention measures and damage insurance of the municipality.


Probability of various places, calculated on the basis of such generation interval of investigation and past earthquakes of active faults. 3% or more "high", up to 3% from 0, 1% has been defined as "somewhat high", the domestic majority is included in either.
Rise of the Pacific Ocean side, the minute that after two years from the last time, because the strain of the plate boundary of the sea side and the land side has accumulated. 68% in Shizuoka City, 62 percent in Tsu, 57% in Wakayama City, increased 2 points, such as 73% in Kochi.


In the major cities of each district, Sapporo 0 - 92%, Sendai 5, 8%, Tokyo 47%, Yokohama City 81%, Nagoya 45%, Osaka City 55%, Hiroshima City 22%, Fukuoka City 8 - 1%. The change from 14 years edition has become within plus or minus 1 percentage points.
Both with a probability of at January 1, does not contain the influence of Kumamoto earthquake that occurred in April. Kumamoto City were damaged in Kumamoto earthquake has not changed much with the 7, 8 percent of 14-year 7.6%.

Forecast map, Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Research Institute is making web site "earthquake hazard Station" ( Http://Www.J-shis.Bosai.Go.Jp/ will open in another window), look separated 250 meter square be able to.

http://www.asahicom.jp/articles/images/AS20160610003731_comm.jpg
AS20160610003731_comm


The probability of occurrence of a major earthquake, new prediction map of rising government in the Pacific Ocean side: Asahi Shimbun digital 2016 June 10, 17 hours, 0 minutes,
http://www.asahi.com/sp/articles/ASJ6B4CM8J6BULBJ00L.html

■ Related Links
Check shaking ease of your city in the address
http://www.asahi.com/special/saigai_jiban/






53: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 19: 36: 23.71 ID: 7AL + DIey0
>> 1
If the degree, I say, even I
It does help to highly paid of habit

67: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 20: 16: 01.70 ID: DgAm3ryn0
>> 1
I guess you want to adjust the price of the land.

184: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/13 (Mon) 02: 34: 04.79 ID: f / 4blM / H0
>> 1
Http://Www.Asahi.Com/special/saigai_jiban/

Warota district that live in their own is "especially swing easy."








4: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 18: 46: 28.60 ID: LDtwSyV10
This is the Sea of ​​Japan comes in surprise

6: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 18: 47: 41.37 ID: pTollBO80
Only doing just east Nankai measures because the subsidy comes out
Japan takes place roughly anywhere earthquake
http://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/eqev/data/bulletin/catalog/figure/hypo2015/japan01.png
japan01

7: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 18: 48: 13.40 ID: Cqp1sVW50
Primary Itofuyu Ryo








8: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 18: 48: 31.21 ID: P4uOQsvG0
I like this uncertain hazard map, not it has the effect of rather to increase the damage kana ...
Would Kumamoto is a good example

46: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 19: 13: 52.26 ID: nm5NjWD00
>> 8
Kumamoto even though red.
Since the weather forecast is occasionally come off, or who can not do is think that good?
Is a problem of certainly do not know the meaning of the forecast there are many people, but I want to know a lot of people.
I think should be published rapidly.

50: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 19: 22: 47.88 ID: R5HJwZUU0
>> 46
I think the Who Kumamoto dangerous in this look at the map?
But low probability of a few percent, most of Kumamoto.

54: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 19: 37: 25.81 ID: nm5NjWD00
>> 50
Kumamoto City, but red in seismic intensity 6 or more of the map.
Bright red Kumamoto Prefecture As far to the seismic intensity of 5 or more.
The first place and whether the class entering the super earthquake frequent area if you look at even a few percent worldwide.
While not enough to worry about on a daily basis, measures are necessary.








9: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 18: 48: 32.39 ID: yo4Rmgr40
It indescribable because off expected.

18: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 18: 52: 38.07 ID: yIZmFhj00
Range of the prediction I 26% and 100% in the lower-right corner of the image will too severe.
Do not be published well this kind of embarrassing expected view.

21: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 18: 54: 13.01 ID: dR84knxl0
>> 18
Well, it is Daseyo a high probability of more precision turned seismologist









22: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 18: 54: 37.18 ID: tTShzB1Y0
Ah, but my house a little less than 6 area

23: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 18: 54: 46.18 ID: FZ8f1wes0
Sanriku → Kyushu → Kanto and Nankai → Sanriku

1611 Keicho Sanriku huge earthquake ... Hokkaido, Sanriku of dead or damage serious by a large tsunami
1614 Keicho East simultaneous huge earthquake (recording leading to Matsuyama from the Nankai Trough. Aizu)
1619 Kanei Kumamoto Yatsushiro large earthquake
1625 Kanei Kumamoto earthquake M5 ~ M6 powder keg explosion, Kumamoto Castle corruption
1627 Genna Nagano Matsushiro earthquake
1628 Kanei Edo major earthquake
1633 Kanei Odawara large earthquake
1677 enpō Sanriku huge earthquake
Southern Tohoku-Kanto region coast, 10m class large tsunami in the Izu Islands
1703 Bungo large earthquake Yufuin Oita, Shonai
1703 Genroku Edo Boso large earthquake ... a large tsunami in the southern Kanto region, collapse, death toll number
1705 Mount Aso earthquake Aso near Oka corruption
1707 Hoei earthquake (Nankai Trough large earthquake, major eruption Mount Fuji after 49 days
1896 Meiji Sanriku earthquake M8.2 ~ 8.5 deaths 22,000 plate destruction earthquake
1896 Sanriku earthquake M7.5 plate destruction
Year 1897 earthquake off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture M7.4 plate destruction
1897 Sanriku earthquake M7.7 plate destruction
1898 earthquake off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture M7.2 plate destruction
Around the 1899 Kii Yamato earthquake M7, Mie Prefecture, Kinki southern plate destruction
1916 Kumamoto Central M6.1 Median Tectonic Line related
1922 Shimabara earthquake M6.5
1923 Kyushu southeast off the coast earthquake M7.3
September 1, 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake M7.9
1944 Tonankai earthquake M7.9

92: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 22: 26: 55.45 ID: AAFK4qdL0
Kumamoto nor I Eraku low probability in spite of was hit by a major earthquake in Fukuoka City.
You wonder if there is credibility to this map?








94: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 22: 29: 23.10 ID: vafnmxQ60
We have procedures for earthquake insurance Nde something spooky
It seems pretty up premiums from February next year under the influence of Kumamoto earthquake

100: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 23: 16: 18.69 ID: t5vDumuZO
I What is 81% of Yokohama death? (Lol)

143: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/11 (Sat) 12: 05: 16.95 ID: fh3K0Mb90
King
Red's ze w as local blood







198: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/13 (Mon) 07: 17: 08.45 ID: b43Jh9qc0
I did not never think Toka experience earthquakes of seismic intensity 7
Naranwa also nothing to mind is that of earthquake

200: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/13 (Mon) 07: 22: 02.13 ID: p9bY7yLs0
But the aim Tourism Nation?









1: Niraikanai φ ★ 2016/06/10 (gold) 18: 46: 59.51 ID: CAP_USER9
◆ Nankai Trough along the subsequent rise = seismic intensity a little less than 6 or more 30-year probability - more than 80% also nationwide forecast map in the Kanto

Earthquake Research Committee of the government is 10 days, announced the 2016 version of "National Seismic Hazard Maps" that summarizes the strength and the probability of shaking of the earthquake to be expected in the future.

Assumptions and subduction-zone earthquake, the active fault earthquakes that occur at shallow land and coastal.
Has been with the occurrence of the Nankai Trough earthquake is approaching, the probability of occurring is shaking more than seismic intensity 6 lower in within the next 30 years will continue to rise in the Pacific Ocean side of the Shikoku from Tokai.




Taken together, subduction and active fault type earthquake, with 85 percent Chiba nationwide highest at the point of prefectural whereabouts City of city hall, Mito Metropolitan Government and Yokohama is 81%, where there were many high in the Kanto.
Tokyo Metropolitan Government is 47%. Kochi 73% in along the Nankai Trough, Tokushima 71%, Shizuoka 68%, is high, such as Tsu 62%.

Forecast map is created based on the January 1 this year, in April Kumamoto earthquake does not reflect.
Education, Culture, Sports, Science and the Ministry of the Secretariat will investigate again over the Futagawa-Hinagu fault zone, which became the epicenter three years, we plan to incorporate the results in the next map at the earliest.

Newsletter June 10, 2016 (gold) 17 hour 6 minutes
http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20160610-00000107-jij-soci








10: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 18: 54: 26.14 ID: q9hcDciM0
Prediction is 80 percent Nevertheless, because the government does not move anything, is a neglect that hard to believe.

People, immediately, we should demand that the government is corresponding.

22: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 19: 03: 52.57 ID: q9hcDciM0
>> 10 continued
Than the economic issues, rather than financial problems, than the Senkaku problem, Takeshima than the problem,
Hitting the Nankai Trough problem of this 80% accuracy, it would be an urgent urgent need of government.

It does allow the excuse of from gone happening and, let me affirm from now.

33: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 19: 25: 45.91 ID: q9hcDciM0
>> 22 continued
If you receive seriously the seriousness of the Nankai Trough, the current Japanese politics will change fundamentally.
National budget also changes, administrative organizations also change, and change is also day-to-day people.
Guys that it does not know is, it's just looking at 80 percent of the crisis inaction and blurred.

46: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 19: 38: 48.28 ID: q9hcDciM0
>> 33 continued
Nankai Trough problem, though it is the biggest problem of Japan, is not seriously think politicians.
Largest theme of national elections, but of course that a Nankai Trough problem.

Well eventually, wailing from happening is possible, will it reflect on.








24: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 19: 06: 06.43 ID: 3wEi / 2An0
Hanshin after also 80 have said there par within 30 years I had been Gakuburu
It does unchanged even after forever

26: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 19: 08: 03.85 ID: ZUUsWgfX0
Probably no good to be done if the 80% cents Yara decentralization with full force from now
Not do it, say, or "80%" is, will only inflame public anxiety
Hurry up and distributed Shiroyo
I because not save Nante citizens 13 million people
What are you doing know government

41: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 19: 34: 05.70 ID: 3Hh3Pgbc0









53: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 19: 48: 30.15 ID: Meu4V / CN0
Fate w that can not be avoided

60: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 19: 57: 44.35 ID: tFTpKs / i0
If you experience Nante directly under the capital in Tokyo are concentrated about the person money than ever before, seriously Japan is the end.
Oke so also of the sub-capital functions have to Osaka and Nagoya.

62: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 20: 01: 07.15 ID: JaNfx5jD0
Although apparently the Russian Navy has been around the recent Japanese archipelago
Also it not sufficient possible to launch a massive nuclear weapons (300 times the Nagasaki atomic bomb) in the meantime the seabed
What if you once explosion?
M9 earthquake and I'm a thing that a large tsunami would Okose








63: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 20: 01: 22.12 ID: P3cLpcNT0
Nankai Trough earthquake damage assumption (the ministry)

The number of expected deaths

Shizuoka Prefecture, 109,000 people
Wakayama Prefecture 80,000
Kochi Prefecture, 49,000 people
Mie Prefecture 43,000
Miyazaki Prefecture 42,000
Tokushima Prefecture 31,000
Aichi Prefecture 23,000
Oita Prefecture 17,000
Ehime Prefecture 12,000
Osaka 7700 people
Hyogo Prefecture 5800 people
Kagawa Prefecture 3,500
Kanagawa Prefecture 2900 people
Nara Prefecture 1700 people
Chiba Prefecture, 1,600
Tokyo 1,500
Okayama Prefecture, 1,200 people
Kagoshima Prefecture 1,200

67: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 20: 11: 28.01 ID: 13jwt1OcO
Or swaying Kana because there still I Ishigaki Island waters shook in the morning reaction
Because from per day before yesterday Kanto Tokai Chubu are noisy is the epicenter of the Ogasawara waters be in preparation
Hui Sassa Fossa Magna is in Yussayussa

133: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/11 (Sat) 02: 06: 10.08 ID: pqB5Qrfc0
Again, Kumamoto earthquake of M7.3. M7 exceed, say the unusual earthquake in western Japan.
Last year, ultra-deep water 600k earthquake of the world also surprised M8.
A large earthquake in the early of Nankai plate, Japan continent generation ...









153: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/11 (Sat) 07: 47: 21.38 ID: DkLj3fQG0
Probability calculation.
When converted to a year that occurs in 80% of probability within 30 years,
Almost the same as the probability that an earthquake will occur with a probability of every year every year 1/20 (5%).
The same as shaking the 20 sided dice of the earthquake once every year. terrible.

160: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/11 (Sat) 11: 10: 09.48 ID: wHLL7KVW0
But it can be seen from data created by the JCG
http://www.sankei.com/images/news/160524/wst1605240012-p1.jpg
wst1605240012-p1


Nankai earthquake and Tonankai earthquake, to work immediately or over a short period of time, it's deformation
To integration, it means there is a need to be connected to a strong distortion
If you look at the figure, it can not be still led obvious









192: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/12 (Sun) 06: 36: 27.65 ID: x97qyR1a0
<Chronology of the Nankai Trough huge earthquake>

684 November 26, Hakuho earthquake M8.4 to M8.3 or M8, - 9

About 203 years

887 years on August 22, Renhe earthquake M8.0 - 8.5

About 209 - 212 years

1096 December 11, Nagaosa earthquake M8.0 - 8.5
1099 February 16, Yasukazu earthquake M8.0 - 8.3

About 262 - 265 years

1361 July 26 Shohei earthquake M8.4

About 137 years

1498 September 11, 1498 Nankai earthquake M8.2 - 8.4

About 106 years

1605 February 3, 1605 Nankai earthquake M7.9 or M7.9 - 8.0

About 103 years

1707 October 28, Hoei earthquake M8.4 - 8.6

About 147 years

1854 December 23, 1854 tōkai earthquake M8.4
1854 December 24, 1854 Nankai earthquake M8.4

About 90 - 92 years

1944 December 7, 1944 tōnankai earthquake M7.9, M8.2
1946 December 21, 1946 Nankai earthquake M8.0, M8.4



194: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/12 (Sun) 08: 04: 36.45 ID: 5aFQMUqR0
Kanto 3 barrage, forever
06 May 12 days 07 hour 54 minutes M5.0 seismic intensity 4 southern Ibaraki Prefecture
06 May 12 days 07 hour 29 minutes M3.4 seismic intensity 1 northwestern Chiba Prefecture
06 May 12, 05 hours 48 minutes M3.3 seismic intensity 1 Chiba Prefecture, east off the coast









237: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/13 (Mon) 10: 04: 50.86 ID: 9FOb5D340
> Forecast map is created on the basis of the January 1 this year


Do it comes to being out and not a 100% probability of Kumamoto that



239: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/13 (Mon) 10: 05: 16.00 ID: Mxgt347nO
Wonder not measures like a Kumamoto people since it announced this mon
Oke in the probability of 99 percent that occurs earthquakes within Japan 100 years

263: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/13 (Mon) 11: 23: 18.07 ID: kq7nkUNi0
Kumamoto to periodic earthquake zone, but it is what had been a blank area


85: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 20: 48: 22.68 ID: MEf // iHD0
So as not to complain

I have been secretly raised probability

91: Anonymous @ 1 anniversary 2016/06/10 (gold) 21: 02: 11.77 ID: J0IsxTa20
>> 85
Not to but never 100%

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